小学男教师专业发展的影响因素及促进策略

作为整个小学教师队伍中的重要群体，小学男教师的专业发展对我国小学教育质量的提高具有重要作用。通过问卷调查法和访谈法，分析上海小学男教师专业发展的现状，梳理影响小学男教师专业发展的有利和不利因素，在此基础上，从小学男教师自身、中小学、师范院校、政府部门等四个维度，提出促进小学男教师专业发展的策略，以期为小学男教师专业发展提供帮助。     

Megachurch involvement at the local level: Examining conditions for church action in economic development

The roles of small congregations and their social impacts are well known, but few theoretical studies investigate megachurch congregations. These mammoth organizations have the potential for advancing social good, but minimal research specifically focuses on the activities of these congregations in economic development (ED). This study addresses this dearth of information by answering the following research questions: (a) In what ways are megachurches involved in ED activities? (b) Who benefits from these programs and how are the programs offered? and (c) What factors influence megachurches to offer ED activities? We frame our investigation using both demand‐ and supply‐side arguments from Frumkin's (2002) model of nonprofit and voluntary action. Online survey data and follow‐up interviews with 42 megachurch leaders in the Dallas/Fort Worth and greater Houston areas show that megachurches are implementing ED activities in alignment with demand‐side explanations, especially when advancing opportunities for the unemployed and underemployed. However, supply‐side arguments provide more explanatory power, indicating that volunteer engagement with ED activities plays a significant role in the provision of ED services through megachurches. Our study offers a better understanding of why megachurches carry out ED activities with considerable attention devoted to how megachurches partner with other congregations, nonprofits, and government entities to encourage economic growth and improve the economic well‐being of community members.     

复杂性科学及其在经济领域中的资助和研究进展

统计和分析了国家自然科学基金委员会(以下简称基金委) 管理科学部自 1986 年以来对复杂性科学及其在经济领域中相关研究的资助情况，同时，对复杂性科学及其与经济科学融合所产生的复杂经济学等研究进行了梳理，系统总结和分析了国内外相关研究的进展和发展趋势，以期为该领域的研究者提供参考和启示，促进复杂系统管理的研究，进而为管理科学部的十四五学科战略规划提供参考，为国家经济治理体系的完善等提供理论储备．     

京津冀人口集聚对能源消费的影响

京津冀作为我国重要的人口集聚区,其区域发展面临严重的能源和环境问题。首先,基于STIRPAT模型构建京津冀面板数据模型,研究1990—2017年京津冀人口密度、经济增长、产业结构和环境规制对能源消费的影响。其次,采用SVAR模型通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解,研究京津冀人口密度变动对能源消费的作用机理和动态影响关系。结果显示,京津冀三地的人口密度、人均实际GDP与能源消费之间存在正向影响关系,其中河北省影响系数最大;北京和天津第三产业占比与能源消费之间存在反向影响关系,河北省第三产业占比对能源消费的影响不显著;北京和天津的环境规制对能源消费影响不显著,河北省环境规制对能源消费具有正向影响;京津冀地区和京冀两地人口密度变动对能源消费的影响在短期呈现负向效应,但是在中长期京津冀地区和三地人口密度变动对能源消费的影响均先上升然后缓慢下降,人口集聚具有集约用能效应。相对于能源消费自身影响而言,京津冀人口密度变动对能源消费的贡献相对较小,其影响效应有限。最后,对京津冀人口流动和能源消费一体化协同发展提出对策建议。     

Social investment effects of public education,health care,and welfare service expenditures on economic growth

The purpose of this study is to theoretically and empirically examine whether public spending in education, health care, and welfare service operates as a fruitful investment in welfare states, which has been implied in the literature of social investment arguments. Based on comprehensive review of existing literature, this study suggested a tripartite mechanism of social investment effect of such spending, that is “enhancement of human capital,” “support for labor force participation,” and “job creation.” To find the empirical evidence, a pooled time‐series cross‐section analysis was conducted with the data of 15 advanced welfare states from 1980 to 2015 using estimation technique of fixed‐effect model. The results confirmed that public spending in education, health care, and welfare service had a positive medium‐term as well as long‐term effect on economic performance, while cash‐type welfare spending had an obscure or no visible effect on economy. Government consumption that is a proxy and control variable of size of the welfare state showed a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term but a negative effect in the long run. In conclusion, this study suggests that reinforcing social services should be recognized and dealt with as essence of social investment strategy.     

煤炭上市公司资本结构与公司成长性研究

文章以沪深两市2015-2018年的煤炭上市企业数据为研究样本，研究煤炭企业资本结构和成长性之间的关系，采用因子分析法和线性回归的方法，从盈利能力，短期偿债能力，资产营运水平，发展能力四个方面反映企业成长性，最终得出盈利能力，短期偿债能力和资产营运水平和企业成长性之间存在着负相关的关系，这对促进煤炭企业构建合理资本结构，降低企业财务风险，保证企业经营目标有着实际意义。     

Public Debt Sustainability in Africa: Building Resilience and Challenges Ahead

The increased access of African countries to international capital markets has put public debt sustainability at the forefront of the continent's policy agenda. Utilising the ‘stabilising primary‐balance’ approach, this article finds that the actual primary balances exceeded those required to keep public debt at the 2007 level in about half the countries studied, and in several cases, those needed to reduce public debt‐to‐GDP to sustainable thresholds. The interest rate‐growth differential (IRGD) drove sustainability, underscoring the importance of growth and borrowing for growth‐enhancing outlays. As the IRGDs are likely to narrow over the longer term, fiscal policies will need to play a greater role.     

The effects of individually varying times of observations on growth parameter estimations in piecewise growth model

When using latent growth modeling (LGM), researchers often restrict the factor loadings, while the multilevel modeling (MLM) treats time as a metric variable. However, when individually varying times of observations are concerned in the longitudinal studies, the use of specified loadings would lead to inaccurate estimation. Based on piecewise growth modeling (PGM), this simulation study showed that (i) individually varying times of observations with larger boundaries got worse estimates and model fits when LGM was used; (ii) estimating the PGM across all the simulation situations was robust within MLM, whereas LGM got identically equal estimation with MLM only in the case of time boundaries of ±1 month or shorter; (iii) larger change of slope in piecewise modeling indicated better estimation.